4 June 2006

Introduction

Perhaps no region of the world was more adversely affected by European colonization than Sub-Saharan Africa. In Asia and the Middle East the impact, though considerable, was relatively light. In the sparsely-populated Western Hemisphere the colonies consisted mostly of European settlers and tended to emulate Europe in their political and economic development. But in Sub-Saharan Africa the Europeans, though they did not displace the native cultures, greatly disrupted the existing political and economic order. When Africans regained their independence in the mid-twentieth century, they were left with inter-state borders that had little correspondence to ethnic realities, and much work to do in developing their political institutions and economies.

Political and economic development

Sub-Saharan Africa is blessed with rich natural resources and industrious people. Unfortunately, since independence the region has struggled with problems including corruption, ethnic and religious conflict and economic stagnation. Understanding why this has happened and discerning the region's future outlook is a daunting task. The analysis offered here cannot pretend to examine all of the factors which have been discussed by others or give an expert answer. Nevertheless, a few things are worth pointing out.

The political systems which arose in the wake of independence tended to be authoritarian, which is not surprising given that most of the countries tended to be what might be termed 'pre-industrial' and consequently lacking many prerequisites for pluralistic democracy. These governments often chose centralized, collectivist economic systems as they identified with the Soviet Union, considered at the time to be a model of a progressive, anti-imperialist country. The authoritarian political systems suppressed ethnic and religious conflict and provided a degree of political stability. However, the concentration of political power combined with large loans from the industrialized West contributed to rampant corruption. Even worse, in economic affairs, governments often did not focus on building a strong agricultural sector to serve as the foundation for economic development, as successful economies have generally done. Instead, they tended to pursue Marxist-Leninist or similar doctrines emphasizing industrial development and agricultural collectivization. The economic effects were disastrous. Within a few decades of independence Africa's share of world economic output and its competitive position declined sharply. Sub-Saharan Africa's agricultural sector actually deteriorated.

In the 1990s Sub-Saharan Africa experienced a wave of democratization, due perhaps in part to the collapse of the Soviet Union. The end of the US-Soviet rivalry meant the end of Western assistance for some dictators in the region, and the spread of democratic systems through the former Soviet bloc may have inspired democratic activists around the world. Also, in the last decade or so, African leaders have generally accepted that economic policies must be liberalized for the region to make economic progress. Unfortunately, political democratization has occurred upon a shaky socio-economic foundation, something the West, intent on regional democratization at the fastest possible pace, is often slow to understand. Furthermore, democratization has unleashed ethnic and religious conflict. This conflict was in some cases building up under authoritarian systems in which one ethnic group suppressed other groups. It has been worsened by the economic decline of the region in recent decades.

There is a certain irony in that political authoritarianism in the post-independence period was associated with disastrous economic policies and economic decline. Now that democracy has arrived and there is a commitment to the right economic policies, the disastrous economic situation that currently exists is fueling ethnic and religious conflict which is hindering political and economic development.

Can the region, through persistent effort, finally move forward? Any attempt to answer that question is complicated by yet other factors. One is that the industrialized West is maintaining agricultural subsidies and other trade barriers which hinder Africa's ability to expand agricultural exports, critically important for economic development, though the West has recently agreed to write off most of the region's debt. Another problem is the scourge of HIV/AIDS which has flourished in an environment of social permissiveness and inadequate health care. HIV/AIDS, besides being a human tragedy, is another draw on scarce resources. Still another problem is that Sub-Saharan Africa has fallen so far behind the rest of the world economically that a serious 'brain drain', or exodus of the most highly-educated people, to the affluent West has made it difficult for the region to retain people especially critical to its development.

Major conflicts

Since independence, most strife in the region has had to do with ethnic conflict or with disputes over what political systems or policies ought to be adopted in various states. Occasionally there is a territorial dispute that leads to war such as that between Eritrea and Ethiopia, but this has been the exception. An especially disturbing development over the last decade or two has been the rise in religious conflict, particularly in western Africa. The region presents a mixed picture. As mentioned above, there are both positive and negative factors at work, and this seems to be reflected in the incidence of conflict. Some conflicts, such as those in southern Sudan and in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), appear to be on the mend. But others have sprung up in Ivory Coast and in western Sudan/eastern Chad.

In the DRC, the parties to the civil war there have been groping their way towards peace over the last few years. Slow but steady progress has been made in bringing all parties into the peace process and developing an acceptable power-sharing formula. However, the process of the institutionalization and development of cohesion in the new armed forces has been difficult. Implementation of the July 2002 agreement between Rwanda and the DRC has also been challenging. Rwandan forces have essentially withdrawn from the DRC, but the DRC-based Hutu militias have not yet been disarmed. Still, both Rwanda and the DRC seem committed to achieving normal relations. It is probably unreasonable to expect easy resolution of ethnic conflict in the Great Lakes region in the near future.

Ethnic and religious conflict is not new in Nigeria, but since the advent of multi-party democracy several years ago it seems to have gotten worse. The internal strife there poses a serious obstacle to Nigeria’s development and is unlikely to be resolved soon.

The situation in Ivory Coast is also serious, but has become so relatively recently. On the one hand, the religious and ethnic divisions there seem to have grown to their present size only in recent years. On the other hand, full-fledged civil war has already broken out. This appears to be a classic case of economic decline aggravating religious and political conflict. The international community has pressured the two sides into negotiations and formation of a power-sharing government. It is hard to gauge the prospects for peaceful resolution of the conflict. Without real leadership on both sides it may be too late for that.

No sooner had the Sudanese government reached a political settlement with the Sudan People's Liberation Movement (SPLM) in the south than a rebellion sprang up in the western Darfur region. The government allowed harsh measures against the Darfur rebels including raids by local Arab Janjawid militia. The government of Sudan's neighbor to the west, Chad, faces a rebellion which is based on the same Zagawa ethnic group, a non-Arab group which straddles the Sudan-Chad border. Chad's President Idriss Deby is himself from the Zagawa and took power in a successful 1990 rebellion. But there is some anger among the Zagawa over what have been until now his cordial relations with Sudan. Thus Deby appears to be somewhat isolated and vulnerable to being overthrown. Many analysts are concerned that the situation in the region is degenerating into a general conflict between African farmers and Arabic-speaking nomadic herdsmen.