11 March 2006

A few intractable conflicts continue to threaten the future peace and development of the region. They are all a direct result of World War Two or its immediate aftermath; in some cases well-intentioned policies have contributed to them.

The China-Taiwan conflict

The greatest long-term threat to peace in the region remains the conflict between China and Taiwan. Taiwan still appears to have little desire for unification with the mainland. The island shows no sign of declaring independence, yet continues to enjoy the benefits of American friendship.

China's patience is wearing thin. The problem will only get worse as Chinese nationalism develops and becomes an important domestic political tool for the Chinese Communist Party. This process will take decades to unfold, but the signs are there. If things continue as they are, there is a good chance of a full-fledged 'cold war' between the US and China within the next few decades. The cross-strait military balance continues to become less favorable to Taiwan, which means that whatever window it has for formally establishing its independence continues to shrink. Mindful of relations with China, the US discourages Taiwan from seeking formal independence. US leaders seem to assume that the status quo will eventually lead to a peaceful outcome due to democratization of China. This assumption is questionable. However, the Taiwanese people, unwilling to alienate their US ally, and desiring to avoid confrontation with China, have reigned in politicians who appear too eager for formal independence.

In the near term there will be little change in China's foreign and domestic policies. The 2003 Party Congress selected leaders who are likely to continue cordial relations with the US, avoid offending the Islamic world, continue economic modernization and development, and continue the steady modernization of the military. Preserving the authoritarian political system will be challenging but quite possible for the Communist Party for many years to come.

The Korean conflict

In late 2002 North Korea effectively withdrew from the Non-proliferation Treaty (NPT) when it removed International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) safeguards from its Yongbyon facility. There is little the US or anyone else can do to prevent the North from developing nuclear weapons if that is their greatest priority.

It may be possible, however, to persuade North Korea that the advantages of restraint outweigh the benefits of nuclear weapons. Threats of economic sanctions or promises of economic aid seem to be not without some effect on North Korea's behavior. It is difficult to judge the North's intentions. There is some reason to believe that there has been a struggle for power taking place within the government between those who believe an accommodation with the US can be reached by foregoing nuclear weapons and hardliners who are reluctant to make concessions to the enemy. North Korean policy and behavior during the recent six-power negotiations has appeared schizophrenic. They seem to be interested in proposals related to normalization of relations and resumption of IAEA safeguards. However, the US has gone farther than it normally does in providing assurances to an adversary, much less an enemy, that it will not attack, and yet North Korea still is having great difficulty deciding to give up nuclear weapons.

The US, for its part, insists that the issue of weapons must precede the issue of relations, even though history suggests that relations must improve before meaningful arms control can be negotiated. So it is reasonable to wonder how serious either side is at this point in negotiating a formal peace. That in turn suggests that this problem is likely to drag on for some time.

North Korea appears to have the fissile material and scientific expertise to develop nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles capable of reaching US allies in the region. Such a development would surely have an adverse impact on efforts to maintain a stable balance of power in the region, but the precise impact is difficult to estimate. Perhaps it could be minimized if the US and/or its allies deployed theater ABM systems, but that would not be without its own complications.

There is little hope that North Korea's political system will collapse any time soon. Indications are that the government is still firmly in control.

The Pakistan-India conflict

The Pakistan-India conflict is also dangerous, though relations have recently improved. Religious fundamentalism in both countries has increased the difficulty of reaching a political settlement of the Kashmir dispute. It continues to pose a threat to political stability in Pakistan. Perhaps President Musharraf has looked into the abyss of Islamic fundamentalism and decided Pakistan must avoid it even at the cost of coming to a political settlement with India.

Conclusion

The economic potential of the region is great, and international peace and understanding across the Asia-Pacific region is possible -- certainly it is greatly to be desired. Tragically, this great promise is unlikely to be realized unless there is a major reassessment by the US of its China policy, and unless the peoples of the southern part of the region learn a greater degree of religious tolerance.