2 SEPTEMBER 2002

Israel, West Bank and Gaza Strip

Palestinian Authority (PA) interior minister Abdel Razzak al-Yahya made a remarkable statement, unprecedented since the start of the current Palestinian uprising in September 2000, apparently calling for an end to the armed struggle against Israel. In an interview with Reuters, Yahya said, "All forms of Palestinian violence have to stop...All resistance acts that are characterised by violence, such as using arms or even stones...are harmful. I call for civil resistance within the framework of the political struggle...The policy of violence is not of any benefit to us because the reaction or the response of the Israeli army is much more violent than the Palestinian violence. It led, in the end, to total destruction, killings and assassinations, and the return of occupation." Yahya acknowledged that the PA was having "great difficulty in regaining full control" of security in Palestinian areas.1 Previously, few Palestinian officials had even called for an end to terrorist attacks. Hamas has rejected Yahya's previous calls for an end to terrorist attacks.

3 SEPTEMBER 2002

Britain, Foreign Policy

Prime Minister Tony Blair said Britain was ready to join the US in an attack on Iraq if the Iraqis refuse to allow a "weapons inspection regime that really makes a difference." "Iraq poses a real and unique threat to the security of the region and the rest of the world. Saddam Hussein is continuing his efforts to develop weapons of mass destruction. Confronted with this reality, we have to face up to it and deal with it," he said. "Either the regime starts to function in a completely different way -- and there's not much sign of that -- or the regime has to change....This is an appaling, brutal, dictatorial, vicious regime...the people that would be most delighted if Saddam Hussein went would be the Iraqi people" (Reuters).

5 SEPTEMBER 2002

Afghanistan

There was a failed assassination attempt on President Hamid Karzai in Kandahar. Two gunmen opened fire on Karzai's motorcade near the Kandahar governor's residence. Shortly before the attack, a car bomb exploded in Kabul, killing at least 16 people. Karzai blamed the attacks on al Qaeda or the Taliban (Reuters).

Venezuela

Several thousand people protested against President Hugo Chavez in La Guaira. There was some violence (Reuters).

6 SEPTEMBER 2002

Western Hemisphere, Diplomatic Affairs

Mexico announced it was withdrawing from the 1947 Inter-American Treaty of Reciprocal Assistance (Treaty of Rio). It said its withdrawal would not take effect for two years. The treaty was signed by most states in the hemisphere, including the US, primarily to provide for collective defense against external attack. The Mexican Foreign Ministry said, "With this decision, Mexico's government reiterates its decision to play a central role in the drafting of a new international architecture and the security measures that uphold it." The US expressed dissappointment with Mexico's decision and said it believed "the Rio treaty remains a vital tool in ensuring hemispheric security" (Reuters).

Israel

Prime Minister Sharon said there would be no return in any future peace process to interim accords that he criticized before taking office. "Oslo no longer exists. Camp David no longer exists, nor does Taba", he said.2

The same day, Israeli attack helicopters struck a suspected ammunition factory in Gaza (Reuters).

9 SEPTEMBER 2002

Western Hemisphere, Diplomatic Affairs

Canadian Prime Minister Jean Chretien met US President Bush in Detroit. Chretien urged Bush to build an international coalition before taking action against Iraq (Reuters). In recent weeks, the Bush administration has more frequently and forcefully expressed its desire to drive Saddam Hussein from power. The US has said that military force may be justified on the grounds that Hussein has failed to dismantle his weapons of mass destruction (WMD) development programs as required by UN resolutions and the cease-fire agreement with the victorious US-led coalition in 1991, and could pass such weapons to al-Qaeda or other anti-US groups.

10 SEPTEMBER 2002

Diplomatic Affairs

The UN formally admitted Switzerland as its 190th member (Reuters).

Britain, Foreign Policy

Prime Minister Tony Blair said military force would become necessary if Saddam Hussein did not readmit weapons inspectors into Iraq. "Let it be clear that he [Saddam] must be disarmed," Blair said. "Let it be clear that there can be no more conditions, no more games, no more prevaricating, no more undermining of the U.N.'s authority. And let it be clear that should the will of the U.N. be ignored, action will follow." He said the U.N. "must be the way to resolve the threat from Saddam....Diplomacy is vital. But when dealing with dictators -- and none in the world is worse than Saddam -- diplomacy has to be backed by the certain knowledge in the dictator's mind that behind the diplomacy is the possibility of force being used" (Reuters).

Colombia, Civil Affairs

The government decreed that security forces could arrest suspects without a warrant and hold them for 24 hours before they have to be taken before a public prosecutor. Also, the President now has the authority to put areas of the country under military control (Reuters).

10-11 SEPTEMBER 2002

Israel, West Bank and Gaza Strip

At a meeting of the Palestinian Legislative Council, PA president Yasser Arafat called legislative and presidential elections for 20 January 2003. On the 11th, Arafat's cabinet resigned. This move avoided a no-confidence vote in the Council that Arafat was in danger of losing. Many Council members have called for reforms in the PA to end corruption and decentralize power (Reuters).

11 SEPTEMBER 2002

United States, Foreign Policy

President Bush, in a speech on the first anniversary of the major terrorist attacks on the country, said the US "will not allow any terrorist or tyrant to threaten civilization with weapons of mass murder" and that the US will never live "at the mercy of any foreign plot or power" (Reuters).

Pakistan

Police, with the help of US intelligence, captured Ramzi Bin al-Shaibah (also known as Ramzi Binalshibh) in Karachi. Binalshibh is a suspected al-Qaeda militant believed to be heavily involved in planning and coordinating the 11 September 2001 attacks on the US (Reuters).

12 SEPTEMBER 2002

United States, foreign policy

President Bush, in a speech to the UN General Assembly, said, "Saddam Hussein's regime is a grave and gathering danger. The Security Council resolutions will be enforced – the just demands of peace and security will be met – or action will be unavoidable." He did not explicitly mention possible US unilateral steps (Reuters).

America's Iraq policy had, since the Clinton administration, called for the removal of Hussein. However, the actual action taken toward this end had not gone beyond some backing for anti-Hussein factions, which had done nothing to shake Hussein's firm grip on power. The US during the 1990s had essentially been content to contain Iraq.

The administration of George W. Bush, which took office in early 2001, had some key officials, including Vice President Dick Cheney, Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld, and deputy defense secretary Paul Wolfowitz, who had served in the 1989-93 administration of his father, George H. W. Bush, and who saw Iraq as unfinished business.3

Wolfowitz in particular belonged to a school of American foreign policy thought which had emerged since the end of the Cold War known as 'neo-conservatism'. This was essentially a revamped Wilsonianism; it argued that any necessary means were justified to prevent the proliferation of nuclear, biological and chemical (NBC) weapons to states or non-state actors who were hostile to the US, that preventive war should be considered in order to overthrow the governments of US adversaries and replace them with democratic, free market systems, and that the establishment of such systems would have a transforming effect on surrounding states. The neo-conservatives' influence on foreign policy was limited during most of the 1990s by the fact that the Clinton administration did not share their enthusiasm for preventive war. With the election of Bush in 2000 their influence increased. While all 'Iraq hawks' – those who desired regime change in Iraq – were not necessarily neo-conservatives, there tended to be a relationship between the influence of the latter group and the persistence of the former group. After Al Qaeda's 11 September 2001 attacks on the US, American decision makers became even more receptive to the neo-conservatives' ideas. This was particularly true of President Bush.4

The September 11 attacks strengthened the 'Iraq hawks' desire to remove Hussein from power. There was great concern in America about the proliferation of NBC weapons to terrorist groups. US intelligence, along with that of most Western countries, believed Iraq still had stockpiles of biological and chemical weapons. The 'Iraq hawks' were convinced that Iraq simply could not be trusted.5 During a 15 September 2001 meeting at Camp David of top officials including Bush, Cheney, Rumsfeld, Secretary of State Colin Powell, National Security Advisor Condoleezza Rice and Wolfowitz, Wolfowitz had argued for toppling Hussein. Powell had opposed this, saying the US should keep its “focus on the ball” of Al Qaeda, and no one else spoke in favor of the idea at the time.6 However, Rumsfeld later said that the September 11th attacks had strengthened the administration's desire to remove Hussein. In July 2003 he said, “The coalition did not act in Iraq because we had discovered dramatic new evidence of Iraq's pursuit of weapons of mass murder. We acted because we saw the existing evidence in a new light through the prism of our experience on September 11.” 7

By the summer of 2002 the administration was engaged in internal debate over Iraq policy. Many in the administration, particularly Cheney, were in favor of removing Saddam Hussein from power through military action. Others, led by Powell, favored working through the UN and taking military action only if Hussein refused to comply with UN demands concerning Iraq's disarmament of NBC weapons programs. Powell's view won out, with Bush deciding in August to work with the UN on the issue.8 It was not immediately clear whether Iraq's compliance with UN demands now would alter US policy regarding removal of the Hussein regime. But Bush later indicated that it would (see 21 October 2002).

United States

Qatar-based al-Jazeera Arabic satellite television aired the second part of a documentary on the 11 September 2001 attacks. The program contained statements attributed to al-Qaeda members pertaining to the planning and conduct of the attacks that appeared to show al-Qaeda's responsibility for those attacks.

Yosri Fouda, an investigative journalist with al-Jazeera, claims to have interviewed Ramzi Binalshibh and Kuwaiti-born Khaled al-Sheikh Mohammad, who Fouda has described as the chief of al-Qaeda's military operations. The interviews were to have been aired in the second part of the documentary but were not because, according to al-Jazeera, al-Qaeda promised to deliver a tape but did not. However, al-Jazeera still broadcasted remarks by Sheikh Mohammad. "We started to plan for the raids of Washington and New York two years and a half before. We had many of the brothers who wanted to take part. When we started to study the targets the idea of hitting US nuclear facilities emerged", he was quoted as saying (ultimately it was decided not to hit such facilities). Also, an interview was aired with another man the program identified as a member of al-Qaeda who confirmed that Osama bin Laden was the man who appeared in a controversial tape released by the US government in December 2001 as evidence of his (bin Laden's) involvement in the attacks (Reuters).

Algeria

Near Merouna, in Batna province, government troops killed in an ambush a man the government later claimed was Emad Abdelwahid Ahmed Alwan (alias Abu Mohamed). Alwan was a significant figure in al Qaeda in Africa, according to Algerian and US officials.9

Diplomatic Affairs

US President Bush and Afghan President Hamid Karzai met at the UN in New York. They discussed economic aid for Afghanistan among other things (Reuters).

14 SEPTEMBER 2002

Spain

Over 10,000 people protested in Bilbao against the recent banning of the Basque separatist party Batasuna (see 26 August). There was some violence as police dispersed the march (Reuters).

15 SEPTEMBER 2002

Macedonia, Politics

General elections were held. The Together for Macedonia Alliance, led by former prime minister Branko Crvenkovski, won 60 of the 120 seats in the Sobranie. Prime Minister Ljubco Georgievski's ruling Internal Macedonian Revolutionary Organization-Democratic Party for Macedonian National Unity (VMRO-DPMNE) alliance won 33 seats. Former ethnic-Albanian rebel leader Ali Ahmeti's Democratic Union for Integration (DUI) gained the most votes from the Albanian community, which is guaranteed a share of power. The new government faces major economic problems. GDP fell 4.6% in 2001 and unemployment is at 40% (Reuters, IFES).

Sweden, Politics

General elections were held. Prime Minister Goran Persson's Social Democrats won 144 seats in the 349-seat parliament. The Left Party and the Greens, the two parties Persson has worked with most to govern, won 30 and 17 seats respectively. The Moderate Party (MS) won 55 seats, the Liberal People's Party (EP) won 48, the Christian Democrats (KD) won 33 and the Centre Party (CP) won 22. Persson has promised to defend the existing social welfare system. He also advocates, as do the four opposition parties, Sweden joining the euro currency (Reuters, IFES).

Iran, Foreign Policy

In a speech to the UN General Assembly, Foreign Minister Kamal Kharrazi said, "We are against any unilateral measure or military intervention in Iraq", but also that Iraq should let weapons inspectors back in (Reuters).

Syria, Foreign Policy

Addressing the UN General Assembly, Foreign Minister Farouq al-Shara said, "We see no justification for igniting a new war in the Middle East." He said attempts to force Iraq, but not Israel, to obey UN Security Council resolutions reflected "blind bias" (Reuters).

16 SEPTEMBER 2002

Diplomatic affairs

Iraq, in a letter to UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan, said it had decided to readmit weapons inspectors without conditions based "on its desire to complete the implementation of the relevant Security Council resolutions and to remove any doubts that Iraq still possesses weapons of mass destruction", and that this decision was a first step toward a "comprehensive solution" that should include the lifting of UN sanctions. The US, believing that Iraq still had WMD stocks, was not satisfied with the Iraqi decision, which did not promise to disarm or to disclose the state of its weapons programs.10 A written statement released by White House spokesman Scott McClellan said, "This is a tactical step by Iraq in hopes of avoiding strong UN Security Council action. As such, it is a tactic that will fail." It also said a "new, effective UN Security Council resolution that will actually deal with the threat Saddam Hussein poses" was still needed. French Foreign Minister Dominique de Villepin, on the question of whether a new resolution would still be needed, said, "Different options are open. We will discuss with our Security Council partners what might be needed once the inspectors are to return" (Reuters).

Ukraine

Over 20,000 people demonstrated in Kiev against President Leonid Kuchma (Reuters).

16-18 SEPTEMBER 2002

Sri Lanka

Representatives of the government and the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) rebels held preliminary talks in Thailand. They plan to meet again in late October (Reuters).

17 SEPTEMBER 2002

Asia and the Pacific, Diplomatic Affairs

Japanese Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi met North Korean leader Kim Jong-il in Pyongyang. Kim apologized for the abduction of Japanese citizens in the 1970s and 1980s, said he would extend a moratorium on ballistic missile tests beyond January 2003, and promised to stop operating spy vessels near Japanese waters. Koizumi apologized for Japan's colonial rule of the Korean peninsula from 1910 to 1945 (Reuters).

18 SEPTEMBER 2002

Israel, West Bank and Gaza Strip

Zuhair al-Manasra, the Palestinian head of West Bank Preventive Security, in an interview with the Boston Globe, was critical of terrorist tactics. He said the violence "has not been the proper approach by our side....These groups did things that neither our moral values nor our political aims can justify. What can possibly justify bombing a university or a cafe? Nothing" (Reuters).

19 SEPTEMBER 2002

Ivory Coast

Mutinous troops seized Bouake and Korhogo. They claimed they are protesting against their retirement from the army under a plan to make security forces more efficient (Reuters).

Israel

A suicide bombing in Tel Aviv killed five people. Israeli troops later entered the compound of PA president Arafat in Ramallah, trapping him and dozens of suspected militants inside (Reuters).

Korea

Troops from both North and South Korea began clearing mines from a small section of the Demilitarized Zone (DMZ) in order to allow construction of rail and road links (Reuters).

20 SEPTEMBER 2002

Ivory Coast

In Abidjan, loyalist forces killed former junta leader Robert Guei. The government has claimed that Guei plotted the previous day's mutiny (Reuters).

22 SEPTEMBER 2002

Germany, Politics

General elections were held. Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder's Social Democrat Party (SPD) won 251 seats; its coalition partner, the Greens, won 55 seats. This represented a significant drop in support for the SPD but a slight gain for the Greens, leaving the coalition with a reduced majority in the Bundestag over its opponents. The Christian Democratic Union-Christian Social Union (CDU/CSU), led by Angela Merkel and Edmund Stoiber, won 248 seats, while its prospective ally, the Free Democratic Party (FDP), won 47 seats. The SPD was hurt by the sluggish economy, though Schroeder probably helped his party by publicly opposing German involvement in a hypothetical US attack on Iraq (Reuters, IFES).

Britain

About 400,000 people participated in a demonstration in London organized by the rural umbrella group The Countryside Alliance to raise issues of concern to rural areas (Reuters).

23 SEPTEMBER 2002

Jordan, Foreign Policy

Foreign Minister Marwan al-Muasher said Jordan would not allow the US to use its territory to attack Iraq. "We have not been asked to use our bases. We will not (let others) use our bases and we have made that absolutely clear", he said (Reuters).

24 SEPTEMBER 2002

Military Affairs

At a meeting of NATO defense ministers in Warsaw, NATO Secretary-General George Robertson said it was the job of the alliance to protect citizens from "criminal terrorists and criminal states....Our common aim must be to maintain the will and the capabilities to deter those...threats where possible, to root them out and destroy them where deterrence has broken down" (Reuters).

Israel, Gaza Strip

Israeli forces raided two Gaza City suburbs, destroying metal workshops and some houses belonging to families of Palestinian militants (Reuters).

India

Three unidentified gunmen entered the Adshardham Temple in Gujarat state and killed 29 people. Commandos later attacked and killed the gunmen (Reuters).

26 SEPTEMBER 2002

United States, Foreign Policy

Secretary of State Colin Powell said the US and Britain had agreed on a proposal for a new UN Security Council resolution on Iraq and had begun consultations with Russia, China and France. All three have shown relatively little enthusiasm for such a resolution. Powell said the measure must find Iraq in violation of previous UN resolutions, specify what it must do to comply and "determine what consequences will flow from Iraq's failure to take action."

Also, the US, which wants to topple Iraq's government, claimed there were links between Iraq and al Qaeda. Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld said, "We have what we believe to be credible information that Iraq and al Qaeda have discussed safe-haven opportunities in Iraq, reciprocal non-aggression discussions. We have what we consider to be credible evidence that al Qaeda have sought contacts in Iraq who could help them acquire weapons of mass destruction capabilities" (Reuters).

27 SEPTEMBER 2002

Ivory Coast

Rebel forces, by this time calling themselves the Patriotic movement of Ivory Coast, entered Odienne. They had lately begun saying that they would try to take Abidjan, and that if they were successful in taking power they would hold elections for a new government (Reuters).

28 SEPTEMBER 2002

Russia, Foreign Policy

Russian Foreign Minister Igor Ivanov said, "Our position is that UN weapons inspectors should return to Iraq as quickly as possible. The necessary conditions for this exist. But we are prepared to look carefully at the position of all the members of the UN Security Council (Reuters).

Britain

In London, a rally against war with Iraq organized by the Stop the War Coalition and the Muslim Association of Britain drew about 150,000, according to the police (Reuters).

Italy

In Rome, 50,000-100,000 demonstrators called for peace with Iraq at a rally organized by the Communist Refoundation party (Reuters).

29 SEPTEMBER 2002

Yugoslavia, Politics

Serbia held the first round of a presidential election. Yugoslav President Vojislav Kostunica won 30.9% of the vote. Yugoslav Deputy Prime Minister Miroljub Labus won 27.4%. Nationalist Vojislav Seselj won 23.4%. A runoff between Kostunica and Labus is to be held on 13 October. Labus favors vigorous liberal economic reforms, while Kostunica prefers a more cautious approach (Reuters, IFES).

Sub-Saharan Africa, Diplomatic Affairs

The 15-state Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) held an emergency meeting in Accra, Ghana to discuss the crisis in Ivory Coast. Members agreed to begin negotiations between the government and the rebels, and to send in a military force if mediation fails (Reuters).

Israel, West Bank

Israeli forces pulled back from the immediate vicinity of PA president Arafat's Ramallah headquarters. The withdrawal appeared to have been made under US pressure. Prime Minister Sharon had said the seige would only be lifted when suspected militants in the compound were handed over (Reuters).

Middle East and North Africa, Diplomatic Affairs

Saudi Arabia said it had decided to recall its envoy to Qatar for consultations (Reuters).

Notes

1. "Top Palestinian Security Chief Urges Non-Violence", Reuters (www.reuters.com), 2 September 2002.

2. "Israeli Army Wounds Stone-Throwing Boys -Witnesses", Reuters (www.reuters.com), 7 September 2002.

3. Todd S. Purdum, A Time of Our Choosing: America's War in Iraq, New York, Times Books, 2003, p. 262.

4. For an excellent discussion of neo-conservatism in US foreign policy see John Keegan, The Iraq War, New York, Alfred A. Knopf, 2004, pp. 95-99.

5. Purdum, A Time of Our Choosing, p. 261.

6. Purdum, A Time of Our Choosing, pp. 9-10.

7. Purdum, A Time of Our Choosing, p. 263.

8. Purdum, A Time of Our Choosing, pp. 40-42.

9. "Algeria Says It Killed Al Qaeda's N. African Leader", Reuters (www.reuters.com), 25 November 2002.

10. Purdum, A Time of Our Choosing, p. 48.