Iraq

This month the Iraq Survey Group, set up after the March 2003 invasion by the US to learn the details of Iraq's NBC programs, released its report. It found that Iraq possessed no stockpiles of NBC weapons prior to the invasion nor did it have any program to produce them, though the Saddam Hussein regime did hope to reconstitute NBC weapons programs once international economic sanctions were lifted. In an addenda to the report released in April 2005, the ISG said it was unlikely that NBC weapons had been transferred to Syria prior to the invasion, as some had speculated (CNN.com).

From the ISG's findings, information compiled by UNSCOM in the 1990s and other objective evidence which has come to light since the invasion, it appears that Hussein voluntarily destroyed his chemical and biological weapon stocks during the early and/or mid-1990s in order to ease the way for removal of economic sanctions. However, this destruction was carried out in a haphazard and undocumented fashion, perhaps partly because of a desire to 'save face' in the Arab world, or perhaps for internal political reasons. This, combined with past efforts by Hussein to mislead the West about his capabilities and intentions, was probably responsible for the continued belief of Western intelligence agencies, in the years before the invasion, that Iraq possessed weapons stocks.1

Thus, Western governments' general belief in the existence of Iraqi NBC weapons programs and stocks, and concern over them, was understandable. Nevertheless, the failure to base intelligence assessments on reliable information, along with some unfortunate statements which were made by the US prior to the invasion claiming to have such information (see 9 January 2003), damaged the credibility of Western intelligence, especially US intelligence.

Haiti

There was an increase in civil strife in Port-au-Prince between supporters and opponents of the Lavalas Family party. The police were ineffective and the UN peacekeeping force was still not up to its planned strength (CNN.com).

Spain

Authorities arrested and charged dozens of people alleged to have been preparing a bombing of the National Court in Madrid (CNN.com).

1 OCTOBER 2004

Pakistan

A suicide bomb attack on a Shi’ite mosque in Sialkot killed 28 people (CNN.com).

2-3 OCTOBER 2004

India

A series of terrorist attacks across Nagaland and Assam states killed 53 people. Most of the deaths came on the 2nd from two separate bomb attacks in Dimapur, Nagaland's commercial hub, and from gunmen firing into a market in Makri Jhoda, in Assam. Fourteen people died in the latter attack. It was not immediately clear who was responsible for the attacks; there are a number of separatist groups in both states (AP).

3 OCTOBER 2004

Spain

The government announced that the leader of the ETA terrorist group, Mikel "Antza" Albisu Iriarte, had been captured in Salies de Bearn, France, along with his female companion, Soledad "Anboto" Iparraguire. There were also raids in six other French towns near the Spanish border and in Burgos, Spain, which resulted in arrests (CNN.com).

Slovenia, politics

In general elections, the Social Democrats (SDS) led by Janez Jansa defeated Prime Minister Anton Rop’s Liberal Democrats (LDS), taking 29 seats in the 90-seat National Assembly, six more than the LDS. Little change was expected in policy (Reuters, IFES).

4 OCTOBER 2004

Cambodia, civil affairs

The National Assembly finally ratified the basic agreement with the UN for establishing a UN-assisted tribunal to try former leaders of the Khmer Rouge (AP).

Iraq

There were two car bomb attacks in Baghdad near the Green Zone (CNN.com).

5 OCTOBER 2004

Iraq

Over 3,000 US, Iraqi and other coalition troops began an operation against rebels in the northern part of Babil province (CNN.com).

6 OCTOBER 2004

Diplomatic affairs

British Prime Minister Tony Blair met Sudanese President Omar el-Bashir in Khartoum (AP).

7 OCTOBER 2004

Pakistan

A car bombing in Multan killed at least 39 people (CNN.com).

Egypt

Suicide bomb attacks against the Hilton Hotel in Taba and in the surrounding area killed 34 people (CNN.com).

9 OCTOBER 2004

Afghanistan, politics

A presidential election was held. On 3 November, the U.N.-Afghan Joint Electoral Management Body announced the results and said that, though there were some irregularities in the conduct of the election, they did not materially affect the outcome. President Hamid Karzai won 55.4% of the vote; former education minister Yunus Qanooni won 16.3%. Sixteen other candidates split the rest. Turnout was 70%. Karzai said his government would “work for strengthening of the Afghan army, the police, and other institutions of the state" and that "There will not be any private militia forces in Afghanistan, that is the first demand of the Afghan people" (CNN.com).

Australia, politics

In general elections, Prime Minister John Howard’s coalition government won a strong victory over the opposition led by Labor’s Mark Latham. Howard later said continued economic growth and national security were the key priorities for his new term (CNN.com).

10 OCTOBER 2004

Somalia

Parliament, at a session held in Nairobi, Kenya, selected Abdullahi Yusuf to be President. Yusuf called for international assistance in disarming Somalia’s rival militias (Reuters).

Pakistan

In Lahore, a suicide bomber killed three people outside a Shi’ite mosque, including a police officer, who had stopped him before he could enter the mosque (CNN.com).

11 OCTOBER 2004

Diplomatic affairs

The EU lifted economic sanctions against Libya (AP).

14 OCTOBER 2004

Cambodia, politics

The Council of the Throne selected Prince Norodom Sihamoni to replace retiring King Norodom Sihanouk (CNN.com, www.rulers.org).

19 OCTOBER 2004

Burma, politics

The government announced that the Prime Minister, Gen. Khin Nyunt, had resigned for health reasons, though there were indications that he had been arrested over a corruption scandal. He was replaced by Lt. Gen. Soe Win, who may take a more cautious approach to democratization of the political system (AP).

20 OCTOBER 2004

Diplomatic affairs

The African Union’s (AU) Peace and Security Council agreed to expand the AU’s force in Sudan’s Darfur region to 3,000 troops. There are currently 150 monitors and 300 troops there to help monitor the cease-fire between government and rebel forces (Reuters).

Lebanon, politics

Prime Minister Rafic Hariri resigned (CNN.com).

22 OCTOBER 2004

Diplomatic affairs

Russia’s lower house of parliament, the State Duma, approved the Kyoto Protocol by a vote of 334-73. Russia’s ratification would give the Protocol the 55 countries accounting for 55% of global greenhouse gas emissions in 1990 it needs to enter into force (AP).

25-27 OCTOBER 2004

Asia and the Pacific, diplomatic affairs

On the 25th, US Secretary of State Colin Powell, commenting on the China-Taiwan conflict during a trip to Asia, said, "We want to see both sides not take unilateral action that would prejudice an eventual outcome, a reunification that all parties are seeking." Later that day he said, "Taiwan is not independent. It does not enjoy sovereignty as a nation, and that remains our policy, our firm policy." However he also urged China to renew dialogue with Taiwan. The next day, Taiwan President Chen Shui-bian said, "Taiwan is definitely a sovereign, independent country, a great country that absolutely does not belong to the People's Republic of China." On the 27th, Zhang Mingqing, a spokesman for China’s Taiwan Affairs Office, said, "It does not matter who calls for the resumption of peace talks, the problem is not with us" and that there is no basis for dialogue until Taiwan accepts China’s ‘one China’ policy (Reuters).

26 OCTOBER 2004

Israel

Parliament approved Prime Minister Sharon’s plan for the withdrawal of military forces and settlements from the Gaza Strip and small parts of the West Bank. The vote was 67-45 with seven abstentions. The vote puts in motion a plan to remove 21 settlements from Gaza and four from the northern West Bank. Before the withdrawals take place parliament must vote again to approve the plan. Sharon has said he wants the settlements evacuated by the end of 2005. Before the vote Sharon said the ‘disengagement’ plan is necessary because of the failure of peace negotiations with the Palestinians (CNN.com).

29 OCTOBER 2004

Al Qaeda

Osama bin Laden, in a videotaped message aired on the Arab language network Al-Jazeera, said he first thought of attacking the World Trade Center in New York during the Israeli invasion of Lebanon in 1982 to punish what he described as “transgressions and the coalition between Americans and the Israelis against our people in Palestine and Lebanon...” (CNN.com)

30 OCTOBER 2004

Botswana, politics

Parliamentary elections were held. President Festus Mogae’s Botswana Democratic Party (BDP) won 44 seats in the 57-seat National Assembly. An alliance of opposition parties won 12 seats (IFES, CNN.com).

Iraq

A car bomb attack on the offices of the Al-Arabiya television network in Baghdad killed six (CNN.com).

31 OCTOBER 2004

Uruguay, politics

General elections were held. Tabare Vazquez received about 50.7% of the vote for President. His Encuentro Progresista-Frente Amplio-Nueva Mayoria (EP-FA-NM) bloc composed of 12 parties including the Uruguay Assembly (AU), Frenet Amplio Conflunence (CFA), Current 78 (C78), Movement of Popular Participation (MPP), Christian-Democratic Party (PDCU), Party of the Communes, and Vertiente Artiguista (VA) also secured majorities in both houses of Congress. Partido Nacional - Blanco (PN-B) candidate Jorge Larranaga had about 34.3% of the vote; Guillermo Stirling of the ruling Partido Colorodo (PC) had about 10.4%. Vazquez has called for wider distribution of wealth, but told investors after his victory that there would be no upheaval and that Uruguay would honor its foreign debt (www.rulers.org, CNN.com).

Ukraine, politics

The first round of a presidential election was held. Viktor Yushchenko, leader of the “Our Ukraine” bloc, reportedly won 42.0% of the vote; Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovych’s “Regions of Ukraine” party received 41.4%. Five other candidates split the rest. Turnout was around 75%. Most international observers said there was state media bias in favor of Yanukovych and some obstruction of opposition activities. Since none of the candidates received 50% of the vote, a runoff between Yushchenko and Yanukovych was scheduled for 21 November (IFES, CNN.com).

Notes

1. For an excellent discussion of this subject, see Kenneth M. Pollack, “Spies, Lies and Weapons: What Went Wrong”, The Atlantic Monthly, January/February 2004.