2 OCTOBER 2002

Ivory Coast

Rebel forces entered Seguela and Bouna. As at Odienne, there appeared to be no opposition (Reuters).

Diplomatic Affairs

Russia signaled a willingness to consider supporting a new UN resolution on Iraq. Foreign Minister Igor Ivanov said, "If any extra resolutions are required for the effective work of the inspectors we, of course, are ready to consider them" (Reuters).

4 OCTOBER 2002

North Korea, Research

At a session with US officials in Pyongyang, the North Koreans stated that they had a nuclear weapons program. This would be a violation of the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) and the 1994 Agreed Framework with the US. US officials made the admission public on the 16th (Reuters).

The CIA, in a November 2002 report to Congress obtained by Reuters, estimated that North Korea had one or two nuclear weapons using plutonium produced before 1992. Under the Agreed Framework, the North agreed to freeze activities at its plutonium reprocessing plant at Yongbyon. If the North resumed the reprocessing of spent reactor fuel in storage at Yongbyon, it would recover enough plutonium for several more weapons.

The CIA report estimated that North Korea embarked on an effort to develop a centrifuge-based uranium enrichment program around late 2000, and began seeking centrifuge-related materials in large quantities during 2001. The agency said it had only recently obtained clear evidence that the North had begun constructing a centrifuge facility. The uranium enrichment plant could be operational by mid-decade, upon which time it could produce enough weapons-grade uranium for two or more nuclear weapons per year.1

Canada, Foreign Policy

Foreign Affairs Minister Bill Graham expressed Canada's opposition to any US unilateral military action against Iraq. Graham has already said that military action cannot be justified simply to overthrow Saddam Hussein. Graham did say that UN inspectors must have complete, "unrestricted access, anytime, anywhere" in Iraq (Reuters).

Nepal, Politics

King Gyanendra sacked the government after Prime Minister Sher Bahadur Deuba asked for the November elections to be postponed because of threats by the Maoist rebels to disrupt them (Reuters).

Guatemala

Ex-colonel Juan Valencia was convicted of ordering the murder of anthropologist Myrna Mack in 1990 and sentenced to 30 years imprisonment. The conviction was overturned on 7 May 2003 by an appeals court judge who cited insufficient evidence (Reuters).

6 OCTOBER 2002

Brazil, Politics

The first round of a presidential election was held. Luis Inacio Lula da Silva of the Workers Party (PT) won 46.4% of votes. Jose Serra of the Brazilian Social Democratic Party (PSDB) won 23.2%. Anthony Garotinho of the Brazilian Socialist Party (PSB) won 17.9%. Ciro Gomes of the Popular Socialist Party (PPS) won 12.0%. Lula and Serra advance to the second round on 27 October. Serra favors a continuation of free-market economic policies (IFES, Reuters).

Latvia, Politics

General elections were held. New Era (JL) won 23.5% of the vote. For Human Rights in a United Latvia (PCTVL) won 18.8%, and the People's Party (TP) won 16.6%. The result means Latvia is likely to continue its pursuit of NATO and EU membership (Reuters, IFES).

6-7 OCTOBER 2002

Ivory Coast

On the 6th, government forces began an assault on rebel positions in Bouake. On the 7th, they reportedly penetrated to the center of the city but then pulled back to the outskirts (Reuters).

7 OCTOBER 2002

United States, Foreign Policy

President Bush, in a speech on Iraq, said that the previous inspection regime had failed to disarm Iraq of weapons of mass destruction (WMD) and that a tougher approach was needed to enforce the relevant UN resolutions. He called on the US Congress to pass a pending resolution endorsing the use of military force. Bush said, "Approving this resolution does not mean that military action is imminent or unavoidable", and suggested that Iraq still had a chance to voluntarily comply with UN resolutions. However, he reiterated arguements in favor of overthrowing Saddam Hussein. "If we have to act, we will take every precaution that is possible. We will plan carefully. We will act with the full power of the United States military. We will act with allies at our side. And we will prevail", Bush said (Reuters, Fox).

8-9 OCTOBER 2002

Ivory Coast

On the 8th, President Laurent Gbagbo reiterated his opposition to talks with the rebels before they disarmed, saying that would give them legitimacy and encourage similar movements across Africa. "Our states are fragile. We do not have the right to make them more so", he said. On the 9th, Cherif Ousmane, a rebel commander in Bouke, said, "We don't want to negotiate with Gbagbo, we want him to resign. Our objective is Abidjan and then we'll organize free and fair elections and leave the scene" (Reuters).

10 OCTOBER 2002

Pakistan

Parliamentary elections were held. On the 9th, President Pervez Musharraf addressed the country, promising a free and fair election and a smooth transition of power. "Another assurance that I want to give you is that I will transfer full executive powers to the prime minister and then I will give up the post of the chief executive", he said. "I also want to say that one power I shall always keep, about which there will be no compromise...is the solidarity and survival of Pakistan and the running of government free from corruption and dishonesty", he added. Musharraf had given himself the power to dissolve parliament, banned former prime minister and Pakistan People's Party (PPP) leader Benazir Bhutto from returning to the country, and prohibited the family of exiled former prime minister Nawaz Sharif from running for office.

The Pakistan Muslim League Quaid-e-Azam (PML(QA)) won 77 seats in the 342-seat national assembly and the PPP won 62. The Mutahidda-e-Amal (MMA) Islamic coalition won 50, up from the two it won in 1997 (Reuters).

Venezuela

Hundreds of thousands demonstrated in Caracas against President Hugo Chavez (Reuters).

10-11 OCTOBER 2002

United States, Politics

On the 10th, the House of Representatives passed a resolution endorsing the use of military force to disarm Iraq of WMD, provided that diplomatic efforts fail, by a vote of 296-133. The following day, the Senate passed it 77-23 (New York Times, Reuters).

Europe, Diplomatic Affairs

British Prime Minister Tony Blair met Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow, mainly to discuss Iraq (Reuters).

11 OCTOBER 2002

Nepal, Politics

King Gyanendra named Lokendra Bahadur Chand Prime Minister. Chand is a former prime minister and leader of the Rastriya Prajatantra Party. "My first priority will be to restore peace and stability in the country, for which I will try to open dialogue with the Maoist rebels", he said (New York Times).

12 OCTOBER 2002

Indonesia

On Bali, two powerful bombs killed 202 people in the Kuta beach area. Many of the victims were Australian or European. There was no immediate claim of responsibility for the attacks (Reuters).

13 OCTOBER 2002

Serbia, Politics

The presidential runoff drew a 47% voter turnout rate, below the 50% required by Serbian law for a valid election. It appears that the election will be held over again in the winter (Reuters, IFES).

Ivory Coast

Rebel forces were in Daloa (Reuters).

Venezuela

President Chavez led a rally of hundreds of thousands of supporters in Caracas (Reuters).

15 OCTOBER 2002

Northern Ireland

Britain suspended the provisional government and resumed direct rule (Reuters).

16 OCTOBER 2002

United States, Foreign Policy

President Bush spoke on the subject of WMD inspections in Iraq. "Compliance will begin with an accurate and full and complete accounting for all chemical, biological and nuclear weapons materials, as well as missiles and other means of delivery anywhere in Iraq. Failure to make such an accounting would be further indication of the regime's bad faith and aggressive intent", he said. "Inspectors must have access to any site in Iraq at any time without pre-clearance, without delay, without exceptions. Inspectors must be permitted to operate under new, effective rules. And the Iraqi regime must accept those rules without qualification or negotiation", Bush said. He also said Iraq must allow witnesses to its "illegal activities" to be interviewed outside of the country, and that they "must be free to bring their entire families with them, so they are beyond the reach of Saddam Hussein's terror, Saddam Hussein's torture, Saddam Hussein's murder" (Reuters).

17 OCTOBER 2002

United States, Foreign Policy

Referring to North Korea's nuclear weapons program (see 4 October), White House spokesman Scott McClellan said, "The President believes this is troubling, sobering news....We are seeking a peaceful resolution. This is best addressed through diplomatic channels at this point" (Reuters).

Ivory Coast

Government forces and the MPCI rebels agreed to a cease-fire, to be maintained initially by French troops (Reuters).

18 OCTOBER 2002

Indonesia, Civil Affairs

President Megawati Sukarnoputri signed emergency anti-terrorism legislation. According to the new regulations, "Police can detain anyone strongly suspected of acts of terror based on initial evidence for as long a seven days....Any person found intentionally using violence or a threat of violence that would create terror or unrest among the masses...faces the death penalty" (Reuters).

Italy

The largest union, CGIL, which represents nearly six million people, called a strike to protest Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi's budget and financial policies, which it says are aggravating an economic slowdown. The strike was smaller than a previous one in April that was supported by all three major union federations (Reuters).

19 OCTOBER 2002

Ireland

In a referendum on the Nice Treaty for expansion of the EU, 63% said "yes" (Reuters).

Northern Ireland

Jailed members of the Real IRA issued a statement saying the group was disbanding (Reuters).

20 OCTOBER 2002

Ecuador, Politics

The first round of a presidential election was held. Lucio Gutierrez received 20.3% of the vote, Alvaro Noboa got 17.4% and Leon Roldos got 15.5% in a crowded field. The runoff between Gutierrez and Noboa was scheduled for 24 November (Reuters).

Democratic Republic of Congo

The Rwandan-backed Rally for Congolese Democracy (RCD) rebels recaptured Uvira, which they had lost to the pro-government Mai-Mai militia six days before. Rwandan President Paul Kagame accused the DRC of failing to uphold its end of a recent peace agreement (see 30 July). Kagame, whose country's army has withdrawn from the DRC, said, "Now that Uvira has fallen to the RCD we will still hold back....It is fortunate that it comes before the redeployment was done. Had the enemy forces advanced to our border we would not have hesitated (before) going back into Congo."2

21 OCTOBER 2002

United States, Foreign Policy

President Bush, on the subject of Iraq, said, "The stated policy of our government, the previous administration and this administration, is regime change, because we don't believe he is going to change. However, if he were to meet all the conditions of the United Nations, the conditions that I've described very clearly in terms that everybody can understand, that in itself will signal the regime has changed" (Reuters).

Israel

Islamic Jihad claimed responsibility for a suicide attack in which a car carrying 220 pounds of explosives was driven into the back of a bus near Hadera, killing 14 people (Reuters).

Venezuela

An opposition strike reduced business activity in Caracas and other cities but did not affect the oil industry (Reuters).

23-26 OCTOBER 2002

Russia

On the 23rd, about 50 Chechen fighters led by Movsar Barayev took control of a theater in Moscow, seizing over 800 hostages and threatening to detonate explosives if Russia did not agree to begin withdrawing its troops from Chechnya. Early on the 26th, Russian forces stormed the theater. The assault was preceded by the pumping into the theater of a gas based on Fentanyl, an opium-based narcotic, to incapacitate the Chechens controlling the explosives. Most of the Chechens were killed in the assault, as well as over 100 hostages. All but a few of the hostages died as a result of exposure to the gas (Reuters). A variety of factors contributed to the hostages' death toll. Among other things, the hostages were probably in a physically weakened condition from their ordeal over the previous three days, and Russian forces, erring on the side of caution, apparently used an excessive amount of the gas.

25 OCTOBER 2002

Diplomatic Affairs

Chinese President Jiang Zemin met US President Bush at Bush's ranch in Texas. They discussed numerous topics, particularly North Korea's nuclear weapons program (see 4 October). Afterwards, Jiang said, "We Chinese always held the position that the Korean peninsula should be nuclear weapon free. We're completely in the dark as far as the latest development. But today President Bush and I agreed that the problem should be resolved peacefully." Bush said, "Both sides will continue to work toward a nuclear weapons free Korean peninsula and a peaceful resolution of this issue" (Reuters).

26 OCTOBER 2002

Diplomatic Affairs

Leaders from Asia, the Pacific and the Western Hemisphere met at the 21-member Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in Los Cabos, Mexico. They agreed on measures to combat terrorism. Also, US President Bush, Japanese Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi and South Korean President Kim Dae-jung issued a statement that said in part, "North Korea's relations with the international community now depend upon prompt and visible actions to dismantle its program to pruduce highly enriched uranium for nuclear weapons" (Reuters).

United States

About 40,000-50,000 people demonstrated in Washington, D.C. against the prospect of a US attack on Iraq. A similar rally in San Francisco drew about 40,000 (Reuters).

27 OCTOBER 2002

Brazil, Politics

The runoff for the presidential election was held. Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva defeated Jose Serra 61.3% to 38.7% (IFES).

28 OCTOBER 2002

Jordan

A gunman killed a senior US Agency for International Development (USAID) official in Amman (Reuters).

30 OCTOBER 2002

Israel, Politics

The Labor Party withdrew from the coalition government over a dispute concerning funding of settlements in the West Bank. Labor's pull-out left Prime Minister Sharon's government with control of 55 votes in the 120-seat Knesset. Sharon subsequently assumed the foreign ministry portfolio -- vacated by Shimon Peres -- for himself and replaced Defense Minister Binyamin Ben-Eliezer with former army chief of staff Shaul Mofaz (Reuters).

Notes

1. "CIA Says N. Korea Could Produce More Nuclear Arms", Reuters (www.reuters.com), 22 November 2002.

2. "Fighting in Eastern Congo Endangers Peace Process", Reuters (www.reuters.com), 19 October 2002.