APRIL 1996

Diplomatic Affairs

Russian President Boris Yeltsin and People's Republic of China (PRC) President Jiang Zemin declared that the two countries intended to establish a 'strategic partnership' (JIR, 08/1998).

MAY 1996

Sudan

The government expelled Osama bin Laden in response to Saudi and US pressure.1

6 MARCH 1998

Angola

The Union for the Total Independence of Angola (UNITA) declared itself fully demobilised, a requirement of the rebel group under the ongoing peace process. During the UN-monitored quartering process that ended in July 1997, 70,000 UNITA troops were quartered. It later became evident that as many as two-thirds of them were not active UNITA troops. UNITA was given a further chance to quarter its 'residual' troops, mining police and presidential guard, which yielded 6,000 additional troops. UNITA then declared itself fully demobilized (JIR, 08/1998).

MAY 1998

Indonesia

President Suharto was forced to resign after widespread and often violent demonstrations (JIR, 08/1999).

11-13 MAY 1998

India, Research

India conducted a series of nuclear explosives tests at its Pokhran test site.

JUNE 1998

Angola

UNITA was increasing its military activity. The UN deadline for UNITA to complete its remaining peace process tasks was passed on 31 May, then an extension was broken on 23 June. By mid-month, the UN considered 8 out of 18 provinces too unsafe to operate in: Lunda Norte, Lunda Sul, Moxico, Benguela, Huila Uige, Cuanza Norte, Malange and Bie. UNITA was estimated to have 20,000-30,000 troops, 60,000 village-based militia and the arms to launch a guerilla war (JIR, 08/1998).

JUNE-JULY 1998

Libya

There was increased activity against the regime of Moammar Ghadaffi by the Muslim fundamentalist group Islamic Martyrs Movement. On 1 June the group attempted to assassinate Ghadaffi near Sidi Khalifa. In early July there was a series of clashes in the Benghazi area (JIR, 10/1998).

8 JUNE 1998

Nigeria, Politics

Dictator Sani Abacha died. This apparently cleared the way for Moshood Abiola, victor of the 1993 presidential elections which were annulled by the then military government, to be freed from prison. Major General Abubakar Abdulsalam took Abacha's place (JIR, 08/1998).

7 JULY 1998

Nigeria, Politics

Moshood Abiola died hours before he was to be released from prison (JIR, 08/1998).

22 JULY 1998

Iran, Research

Iran test-fired its Shahab 3 MRBM. Iran claimed the test was successful; the US claimed the missile travelled 100 seconds before malfunctioning. Range of the Shahab 3 is 1,290-1,500km; circular error probable (CEP) is estimated at about 4,000m (JIR, 09/1998).

26 JULY 1998

Cambodia, Politics

Hun Sen's Cambodian People's Party (CPP) won 64 seats. The Royalist opposition FUNCINPEC won 43, and the Sam Rainsy Party (SRP) won 15 (JIR, 10/1998).

7 AUGUST 1998

Sub-Saharan Africa

Terrorists associated with Osama bin Laden exploded car bombs in Nairobi, Kenya and Dar es Salaam, Tanzania. The bomb outside the US embassy in Nairobi killed 247 and injured thousands, mostly Kenyans.

15 AUGUST 1998

Northern Ireland

A car bomb set by the Real IRA (RIRA) exploded in the Northern Irish town of Omagh, killing 29 civilians. Frustrating any Loyalist backlash was the fact that Catholics and Protestants both died in the attack, which helped unite the two communities against the bombers (JIR, 10/1998).

7 SEPTEMBER 1998

Northern Ireland

The Real IRA (RIRA) declared a ceasefire. Its public support had plummeted following the Omagh attack on 15 August. The Continuity IRA (CIRA), with about 30 "activists" and virtually no sympathizers, remained the only group carrying on an armed struggle against Northern Ireland (JIR, 10/1998).

22 SEPTEMBER 1998

Lesotho

The Southern African Development Community (SADC), in response to a request from the Lesotho government, launched Operation 'BOLEAS', sending troops into Lesotho to help restore law and order.

By late August, unrest and social strife resulting from the ruling party's controversial victory in general elections in May had paralysed the country. Prime Minister Pakalitha Mosisili requested from the SADC "a strong military intervention, to help Lesotho to return to normalcy."

The South African National Defense Force (SANDF) contributed 600 troops plus APCs and aircraft for the initial part of the operation. The Botswanan Defense Force (BDF) contributed 200 troops. Operations would show that the SANDF was not yet a truly integrated force, and it lacked experience in peacekeeping operations.

The Royal Lesotho Defense Force (RLDF) consisted of about 2000 personnel. SANDF intelligence failed to notice the presence of heavy infantry weapons in the RLDF, and expected limited resistance. Furthermore, there are indications that the RLDF had expected the attack.

At 0500 on the 22nd, SANDF and BDF troops crossed the Lesotho border. Initial objectives included the Katse Dam and the Royal Palace in Maseru, both of which were taken on the first day, and RLDF bases at Ratjenose and Makonyane. There was heavy resistance at most points. Also, there were riots and widespread looting of South African businesses in Maseru. The intervention force was preoccupied with the RLDF and did not restore order quickly enough to prevent the center of the capital from being gutted.2

23 SEPTEMBER 1998

Lesotho

The RLDF bases fell, but many of the defenders retreated into the surrounding hills. The SANDF continued to reinforce its forces, eventually reaching a strength of about 3,400 troops and at least 100 armored vehicles.3

28 SEPTEMBER 1998

Lesotho

RLDF opposition began to break down as over half of its members assembled at Ragamose military base to register and hand in their weapons.4

OCTOBER-DECEMBER 1998

Afghanistan

Opposition forces numbering 10,000-12,000 troops under former defense minister Ahmadshah Massoud conducted a coordinated counter-offensive against the Taliban. On 17 October they recaptured their former headquarters at Taloqan. This was followed in November by the capture of the Dasht-i-Archi, Emam Saheb and Sher Khan Bandar districts bordering Tajikistan, as well as the Ishkamish and Burka districts further south.5

NOVEMBER 1998

Angola

About 4,000 UNITA troops deserted and surrendered their weapons to the government at the end of the month. The faction was led by former UNITA secretary-general Eugeno Manuvakola, who broke with UNITA leader Jonas Savimbi in September to forge a patriotic alliance with the government "to defend the supreme national interests of Angola" (JIR, 01/1999).

FEBRUARY 1999

Turkey

Abdullah Ocalan, leader of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) rebel group, was captured in Kenya by Turkish special forces (JIR, 08/1999).

12 MARCH 1999

Diplomatic affairs

The Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland were inducted into NATO (JIR, 7/1999).

11 APRIL 1999

India, military affairs

The first flight test of the Agni II IRBM was conducted (JIR, 08/1999).

14-15 APRIL 1999

Pakistan, military affairs

The Ghauri II IRBM was flight tested on the 14th and the Shaheen I MRBM was tested on the 15th (JIR, 08/1999).

MAY 1999

Afghanistan

Massoud’s forces launched an offensive against Kunduz in early May which made some territorial gains but faltered within a week; it was undermined by a lack of ammunition and by the recapture of Bamiyan by the Taliban on 9 May (JIR, 08/1999).

17 MAY 1999

Israel, Politics

Ehud Barak became the new prime minister, defeating Benjamin Netanyahu 56% to 44%, a landslide in Israeli politics. Barak's 'One Israel' alliance--an amalgam of Labour, Gesher and Meimad--won 26 of 120 seats in the Knesset. Likud won 19 seats, the ultra-Orthodox Shas party won 17, and the Israeli-Arab parties won 10 between them.

Barak promised to resume negotiations with Syria; he also promised, soon after the election, that he would withdraw Israeli forces from South Lebanon within a year. There was little substantive difference between Netanyahu's Palestinian policy and Barak's (JIR, 07/1999).

JUNE 1999

Syria, Politics

President Hafez al-Assad carried out a major purge of senior officers in the military and security services, including General Reyadh Shalish, Assad's uncle. This purge was intended to increase the grip on power of Alawite Assad loyalists. Assad, whose health had been steadily deteriorating, wanted to ease the future succession of his son, Bashar (JIR, 06/1999).

15 JUNE 1999

Yellow Sea

There was a clash between North Korean (DPRKN) and South Korean (ROKN) naval forces. The DPRKN lost one P6 torpedo boat sunk and five other vessels damaged; the ROKN suffered five craft damaged (JIR, 7/1999).

JULY 1999

Iran

Early in the month there were some anti-government protests lasting about a week. This culminated in clashes between police and about 10,000 protesters in Tehran on the 13th (JIR, 08/1999).

27 JULY 1999

Israel, military affairs

The navy took delivery of the first of three German-built Dolphin Class diesel-electric submarines (JIR, 09/1999).

JULY-AUGUST 1999

Afghanistan

Taliban forces launched a carefully coordinated attack on opposition forces under Ahmadshah Massoud on the Shomali plain north of Kabul. Despite some initial success they were soon driven back with heavy losses.

About 10,000-15,000 troops, including about 3,000-4,000 Pakistanis and Arabs, plus some air and armor support were involved. The operation began on 28 July; within a week Charikar was taken and Massoud was forced back to the Panjshir Valley. But within days, Taliban forces were driven back almost to their start-lines.6

AUGUST 1999

Russia

A small group of insurgents calling themselves the “United Headquarters of Dagestan Mujahideen”, nominally led by Shamil Basayev, crossed into the Botlikh district of Dagestan from Chechnya. They numbered probably about 1,000-1,400 lightly armed fighters. Though they had seized several villages by the 10th, they did not reach Botlikh and were soon routed by Russian mechanized, artillery, air and special forces from the North Caucasus Military District.7

SEPTEMBER 1999

Russia

There were several terrorist attacks. On the 9th a bomb attack on an apartment block in the Moscow suburb of Pechatniki killed 94 people. On the 13th, a similar attack in southern Moscow killed 118. On the 16th, a truck bomb in Volgograd killed 18 (JIR, 10/1999).

9 AUGUST 1999

Russia, politics

President Boris Yeltsin replaced Prime Minister Sergei Stepashin with Vladimir Putin.

17 DECEMBER 1999

United Nations

The UN passed resolution 1284 which would ease sanctions against Iraq in return for its cooperation with weapons of mass destruction (WMD) inspections (Reuters).

31 DECEMBER 1999

Russia, Politics

President Boris Yeltsin resigned.

21 JANUARY 2000

Spain

The ETA terrorist group conducted two car-bomb attacks in Madrid, in a residential area where many military personnel live. Army Lieutenant-Colonel Pedro Antonio Blanco Garcia was killed.

The ETA seeks independence for the Basque region in northeast Spain and southwest France (Reuters).

21-22 JANUARY 2000

Ecuador, Politics

On the 21st, President Jamil Mahuad was deposed in a military coup precipitated by the descent on Quito of thousands of Indians opposed to Mahuad's economic policies. The next day, the military supported the ascendency to power of Vice President Gustavo Noboa. Noboa said he would continue existing policies (Reuters).

27 JANUARY 2000

Chechnya

The Russian government said that it had 93,000 troops in Chechnya, fighting 11,000 Chechens. The Russian assault on Grozny was proceeding at a crawl. To the south, Russian forces had generally halted before mountainous terrain (Reuters).

Notes

1. Frank Smyth, "Culture Clash: bin Laden, Khartoum and the War Against the West", Jane's Intelligence Review, October 1998, p. 25.

2. Lawrence Whelan, "Questions Raised By Lesotho Intervention", Jane's Intelligence Review, January 1999, pp. 43-44.

3. Lawrence Whelan, "Questions Raised By Lesotho Intervention", p. 44.

4. Lawrence Whelan, "Questions Raised By Lesotho Intervention", p. 44.

5. Anthony Davis, "Massoud Stages Winter Comeback", Jane's Intelligence Review, January 1999, p. 2.

6. Anthony Davis, "Taliban summer offensive falls short of outright victory", Jane's Intelligence Review, September 1999, p. 4.

7. Mark Galeotti, “War in Dagestan”, Jane’s Intelligence Review, October 1999, pp. 8-11.